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Harry's Notes
2/15/12:
Driven by a
27% drop in its average daily charter rate, and a forecast of continued
tough times for the balance of the year, dry-bulk ship owner Star Bulk
Carrier (SBLK) lowered its quarterly dividend by 70% to $0.015 per
share. More evidence that investors should stay away from dry-bulk
shippers.
2/7/12:
Mortgage REIT American Capital Agency
(AGNC) cut its quarterly dividend by 11% to $1.25 per share, but its
share price wasn't hurt. In fact, it's up slightly. Why? Mortgage REITs
tend to trade near their book value. Besides for the dividend cut,
AGNC also reported its December quarter numbers and its book value, at
$27.71 per share, was up 14% vs. year-ago and up 3% since September 30.
Try to find another MREIT with that track record.
2/1/12:
Pitney Bowes (PBI), the provider of postal
mailing services, just raised its quarterly dividend by 1% to $0.375 per
share. That was enough to bring its yield up to 7.8%, the second highest
in our Manufacturing & Services category (cigarette maker Vector (VGR)
at 9.2% is the highest). But be careful before you jump in. Although PBI
is generating plenty of cash to service its debt and fund its dividends,
as you might guess, the demand for postal mailing services is declining.
Despite PBIs best efforts to come up with new services, sales are
stagnant, if not declining. PBI will report December quarter results on
February 9. Driven by a 4% drop in sales, analysts expect earnings of
$0.60 per share, down 10% vs. year-ago. I suggest avoiding PBI unless
they announce something that will significantly turn things around in
the the February 9 report or conference call.
1/13/12:
In both 2010 and 2011, I described
portfolios each containing seven dividend stocks intended to be held for
the year. My 2010 portfolio averaged a 21% return vs. 13% for the S&P
500. My 2011 portfolio returned 24% vs. 0% for the S&P. Here's my list
for 2012.
• American Software (AMSWA)
• Golar LNG (GLNG)
• H.J. Heinz (HNZ)
• OneBeacon Insurance Group (OB)
• Oneok (OKE)
• Vanguard Total Bond Market Index (BND)
• Verizon Communications (VZ)
Click
here for details.
1/12/12:
Here are the top 10 returning stocks
followed by Dividend Detective in 2011.
|
Company |
D.D.
Portfolio |
2011 Return |
|
B&G Foods |
Mfg |
82% |
|
Oneok |
Utility |
60% |
|
McDonald’s |
Mfg |
34% |
|
CenterPoint Energy |
Utility |
33% |
|
Unitil |
Utility |
31% |
|
Dominion Resources |
Utility |
29% |
|
Altria |
MFG |
27% |
|
Southern Company |
Utility |
26% |
|
J.H. Premium Dividend |
Closed-End Fund |
25% |
|
Foot Locker |
Mfg |
25% |
1/3/12:
Click
here to see our Sample Portfolio returns for December and for the
year 2011.
12/28/11:
We presented our first Dividend Hotshots
portfolio in the October 2009 issue of Dividend Detective Highlights. To
qualify for the Hotshots portfolio, stocks must had been paying at least 4.5%
yields, had solid historical dividend growth records and strong future
dividend growth prospects. We just compiled the total returns (share
price appreciation + dividends) of the first October 2009 list, plus
three more recent portfolios. Here are the results.
|
Start |
End |
Portfolio
Ave Return |
S&P Return |
# Stocks Up
>=2% |
# Stocks Down
>=-2% |
# Even |
|
October 2009 DD Highlights
|
|
9/30/09 |
12/31/09 |
10.2% |
5.5% |
39 |
5 |
2 |
|
9/30/09 |
3/31/10 |
17.7% |
10.6% |
43 |
2 |
1 |
|
9/30/09 |
9/30/10 |
31.3% |
8.0% |
42 |
4 |
0 |
|
April 2010 DD Highlights |
|
3/31/10 |
6/30/10 |
0.8% |
-11.2% |
14 |
9 |
6 |
|
3/31/10 |
9/30/10 |
15.1% |
-2.2% |
27 |
1 |
1 |
|
3/31/10 |
12/31/10 |
26.7% |
7.3% |
27 |
0 |
2 |
|
3/31/10 |
3/31/11 |
34.6% |
13.3% |
27 |
1 |
1 |
|
October 2010 DD Highlights |
|
10/4/10 |
1/4/11 |
8.2% |
11.7% |
28 |
3 |
7 |
|
10/4/10 |
4/4/11 |
13.5% |
17.2% |
32 |
2 |
4 |
|
10/4/10 |
7/4/11 |
14.1% |
17.7% |
35 |
2 |
1 |
|
10/4/10 |
10/4/11 |
5.2% |
-1.2% |
24 |
11 |
3 |
|
April 2011 DD Highlights |
|
4/4/11 |
7/4/11 |
2.4% |
0.5% |
17 |
9 |
11 |
|
4/4/11 |
10/4/11 |
-6.9% |
-17.7% |
8 |
23 |
6 |
12/20/11:
While most REITs investing in home
mortgages insured by government agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have
been cutting their dividends, CreXus Investment Corp (CXS), a REIT that
specializes in commercial mortgages has been going the other way.
CreXus just raised its December quarterly
payout by 17%, hiking its yield to 13.7%. That's the fourth raise this
year. CreXus upped its dividend by 20% in September, by 9% in June, and
by 5% in March. Its $0.35 per share December payout is 59% above
December 2010.
CreXus, a September 2009 IPO, is managed by a
unit of Annaly Capital management (NLY).
12/15/11:
Hotel property REIT Ashford
Hospitality, currently paying 5.1%, says it will up its payout 10% next
year. Another sign of an improving hotel market.
12/6/11:
Small banks are paying big dividend
yields these days, but make sure that you pick the right bank. First
Niagara (FNFG), based in Buffalo, NY, was paying 7.2%, but, alas, it
just cut its quarterly payout by 50%, to $0.08 per share. It seems that
First Niagara needs the cash to complete its takeover of HSBC's U.S.
branches. Don't rely on stock analysts to keep you out of this sort of
trouble, six of 11 analysts were recommending buying First Niagara.
12/3/11:
Here are the Premium Members Sample Portfolio
returns for November: Conservative +2.5%, Growth & Income +1.2%, High
Yield/Spec. -1.3%. For comparison S&P 500 -0.5%. Click
here for
Sample Portfolio returns since Jan. 2008.
12/2/11:
American
Software (AMSWA), which makes software used by major corporations to
manage back office operations, just reported blowout October quarter
numbers. EPS up 83% year-over-year. Revenues up 22%. Dividend is 4.3%.
Check it out.
11/29/11:
Digital
publishing facilitator Rimage (RIMG) increased its quarterly dividend by
70%, bringing its yield up to 6%. Rimage just closed on an acquisition
that it expects to spur growth. It's worth a look.
11/27/11:
I just added a list of publicly
traded general partners to our MLP Directory.
Click here if you don't know why that's
important.
11/25/11:
Ira writes:
"Can you comment on closed-end funds following a covered call strategy?
While in theory they should work, I'm not aware
of any covered-call CEF that has consistently produced results worth talking
about.
Comments?
11/23/11:
We've just posted an updated
Dividend Death List,
which lists stocks that we think are likely to cut their dividends over the
next 12-months. Our previous (8/5/11) version included 13 stocks. So far,
only two of them have cut their payouts, but here's something unexpected:
From August 5, through November 23, 2011, the 13 stock portfolio has
averaged a 10.3% loss vs. -2.4% for the overall market, at least as measured
by the S&P 500 (SPY). In fact, only two of the 13 were in the positive
column.
Comments?
11/22/11:
For a newspaper article, I recently ran
a quick check of the performance of closed-end funds compared to
conventional mutual funds. Here's what I found.
As of November 15,
2011, the overall market, at least as measured
by the S&P 500, was even for the year. However, more than 75% of the 617
closed-end funds tracked by Morningstar were in positive territory for
the year, and more than 40% of them had rewarded shareholders with 15%
or higher returns.
By contrast, only 41% of the 6,657 conventional
mutual funds tracked by Morningstar had recorded year-to-date gains and
less than 1% of them had racked up 15% or
higher returns.
Admittedly, a much higher percentage of
closed-end funds invest in fixed-income securities, especially municipal
bonds, which have outperformed the overall market. Nevertheless, the
closed-end fund’s outperformance is striking.
Comments?
11/20/11:
David Edwards, president of Heron
Financial Group, produces a monthly commentary. His latest, titled,
"Why Watching CNBC Won't Make You Rich," was especially insightful.
Comments?
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