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Dividend Stock Checklist

7 Steps to Picking Great Dividend Stocks

Successful dividend investing requires finding candidates with:

1) minimal risk of dividend cuts and/or other negative events, and

2) a high probability that the dividends will increase while you own the stock.

You win two ways when the dividend increases. First, the yield on your initial investment goes up with the dividend, and even better, the dividend increase often propels the share price higher. Conversely, a dividend cut shrinks your yield and often precipitates a share price drop as well.

Here are seven simple checks to help you pick the best dividend candidates. You can find the required data on many financial sites. I'll use Zacks to demonstrate the process. Start by entering your stock's ticker symbol in the search box at the top of Zack's home page. Then click on the link for your company to display the "Quote Overview" page for that stock.

It's All About Dividend Yield

Since dividends are the point, stop here if the stock isn’t paying a sufficient yield. Zacks lists both dividend and the yield in the stock Activity column. How much is enough? That depends on your needs of course. Here are my rules of thumb.

Action: For tech stocks and other fast growth categories, require a minimum 1.5% yield. For most other categories, require a minimum 2.5% yield. For categories that are not taxed at the corporate level such as REITs, MLPs, and BDCs, require a minimum 3.5% yield.

Of course, for dividend yield, higher is better, as long as the dividend is safe. The following three checks will help you rule out stocks likely to cut their payouts.

Avoid High Debt  

Cash-strapped firms may view dividend payouts as a luxury they can do without. Companies typically get into that position because they are carrying too much debt. Consequently, you can minimize the chances of a dividend cut by sticking with relatively low-debt firms.

The best debt gauge is the total debt/equity ratio (D/E), which compares the total of short- and long-term debt to shareholders equity (a.k.a. book value, which is total assets minus total liabilities). Ratios of 0.0 signal no debt, and the higher the ratio, the higher the debt. What constitutes high debt varies with industry. Typically, industries with steady and predictable cash flows, such as utilities, carry higher debt than firms in more volatile industries, such as semiconductor makers.

Rather than setting an arbitrary maximum D/E ratio, it's better to compare a firm to others in the same industry. You can find the required information by selecting "Style Scores" left-hand vertical menu and then select "Value Scorecard." Use Debt/Equity which displays the most recent quarter's numbers for your stock, its Industry Average and major players.

Action: stick with firms with D/E ratios below their industry average. 

Cash flowing In or Out?

Operating cash flow is the actual cash that moved into, or out of, a firm’s bank accounts resulting from its business operations. Thanks to creative bookkeeping, companies often report positive earnings when, in fact, they are losing money when you actually count the cash.

Remember, dividends come from cash flow, not reported earnings. A firm must be generating positive cash flow to fund its dividends. The easiest way to verify positive cash flow is to check the price/cash flow ratio, which can only be positive when cash flow is positive. Price/cash flow ratios are listed in the Value Scorecard section. For this test, we only care whether the ratio is positive (cash generator) or negative (cash burner). The ratio value is not significant.

Action: Disqualify candidates that are burning cash (negative price/cash flow ratios).

Avoid Cheap Stocks 

While we all like bargains, cheap stocks get that way because savvy market players are selling, not buying. While it's counterintuitive, I've found that the cheaper the stock, the higher the risk. Successful dividend investing requires minimizing risk. You can see the recent trading price near the top of the "Style Scores" page.

Action: Always disqualify stocks trading below $5, and risk-averse investors should avoid stocks below $15.

The next two checks help you to identify stocks with the best dividend growth prospects.

History Teaches 

As mentioned earlier, you'll do best by owning stocks that raise their payouts while you hold them. However, while some companies consider dividend growth a high-priority, others prefer to use the money elsewhere. You can tell which is which from a firm’s five-year dividend growth history (Dividends History).

Action: Disqualify stocks with less than 5% average annual 5-year dividend growth.

Higher Earnings Grow Dividends

Since, in the end, earnings drive dividends, you need stocks likely to grow their earnings over time. You can check stock analysts' consensus long-term earnings growth forecasts for their take on a firm's earnings growth prospects.

However, care is required when using analyst earnings forecasts. Firms with exceptionally high earnings growth forecasts often disappoint at report time, and disappointing results (negative surprises) sink share prices.

With that in mind, stocks expected to grow earnings between 5% and 15%, on average, annually, are your lowest risk plays. Zacks lists analysts'  EPS Growth estimates for a specific stock, its industry, and the S&P 500 for a variety if timeframes in the "Detailed Estimates" section near the top of its "Detailed Earnings Estimates" page.

Action: Disqualify candidates with less than 5% expected annual earnings growth. Risk-averse investors should stick with 5% to 15% expected growth. All investors should avoid stocks expected to grow earnings faster than 25% annually.

Pay Attention to Stock Analysts

Since stock analysts are notorious for their overoptimistic buy/sell ratings, it pays to take heed when they actually do recommend selling a stock.

Consensus ratings of 2.6 to 5 tell you that most analysts are rating the stock at “hold,” which often translates to “sell.” They may be wrong, but they may also be right. Dividend investors shouldn't bet on that coin toss.  You can see the ratings on Zacks by selecting "Price Target & Stock Forecast" on the left-hand menu and then scrolling down to the "Brokerage Recommendations" menu. The consensus total is labeled "ABR" (average broker recommendation).

Action: Disqualify stocks with current consensus analysts’ ratings (ABR) from 2.6 to 5.

These seven tests will help you to identify dividend-paying candidates worth pursuing. But passing these tests doesn't guarantee that you'll make money owning the stock. You still need to research the stock in depth. The more you know about your stocks, the better your results.