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Dividend Death List

Here's a list of high-dividend stocks that we think are risky business and due for a fall.

We use a proprietary risk scoring system to pick stocks for the list. We developed the scoring system to help us select stocks for our various portfolios. It evaluates a stock's mid-term (one to six months) total return outlook.

Our scoring system considers a variety of fundamental, sentiment, and technical factors that we've found useful for evaluating dividend stock candidates. As you might imagine, the Death List stocks are the highest scoring, in terms of risk. It identifies stocks that are likely to cut their dividends and/or suffer share price drops, within the next six months.

Also, to keep the list down to reasonable size, we are only listing stocks trading for at least $5 per share, and paying at least a 4% yield.

Keep in mind that in the stock market, nothing works all of the time. So, while we think that these stocks are riskier than most, not all will drop in price.

The table shows our calculated Risk Score for each stock. We consider scores above 25 as risky, and the higher the score, the higher the risk.

Data: 9/4/08 Recent
Price
Forecast
Dividend
Yield
Risk
Score
SFI iStar Financial 5.68 61.3 638
FCH FelCor Lodging Trust 8.09 17.3 621
LFL Lan Airlines 11.84 9.7 594
LEH Lehman Brothers 15.17 4.5 540
WGO Winnebago Industries 11.69 4.1 311
FSNM First State Bancorp NM 6.11 5.9 293
LCAV LCA-Vision 5.35 4.5 245
MI Marshall & Ilsley 15.63 8.2 228
MBI MBIA 15.93 8.5 216
CSE CapitalSource 12.13 19.8 209
IBNK Integra Bank 6.50 11.1 208
BANR Banner 12.18 6.6 199
HST Host Hotels & Resorts 14.05 5.7 185
UMPQ Umpqua Holdings 14.43 5.3 177
CT Capital Trust 12.73 25.1 173
WCBO West Coast Bancorp 11.97 4.5 165
BRT BRT Realty Trust 10.40 23.9 165
ZION Zions Bancorporation 30.53 5.6 156
CMO Capstead Mortgage 11.30 20.9 146
WBS Webster Financial 22.23 5.4 135
CMA Comerica 27.26 9.7 131
AWC Alumina (ADR) 12.06 7.4 112
ETM Entercom Communications 5.98 6.7 103
TICC TICC Capital 6.07 13.2 97
BAK Braskem SA (ADR) 12.95 5.8 94
ALD Allied Capital 15.06 17.3 92
BGG Briggs & Stratton 15.09 5.8 82
C Citigroup 18.30 7.0 75
CNB Colonial BancGroup 6.76 5.6 70
HBAN Huntington Bancshares 7.56 7.0 67
HGT Hugoton Royalty Trust 29.29 13.5 66
XL XL Capital 18.62 4.1 57
SCMWY Swisscom AG (ADR) 31.40 5.5 54
BDN Brandywine Realty Trust 17.38 10.1 49
PBKS Provident Bankshares 8.05 5.5 48
BPT BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust 85.50 14.3 46
GTY Getty Realty 20.52 9.2 43
PKX POSCO (ADR) 96.42 4.1 42
FUN Cedar Fair 20.28 9.5 41
PNM PNM Resources 11.35 4.4 38
KEY KeyCorp 11.92 6.3 37
NCT Newcastle Investment 6.70 14.9 36
LYG Lloyds TSB Group 20.15 8.9 33
FRME First Merchants 19.27 4.8 33
RWEOY RWE AG (ADR) 98.75 5.1 29
NAT Nordic American Tanker Shipping 34.17 18.7 27

Harry Domash's Dividend Detective

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