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Dividend Death List

Here's a list of high-dividend stocks that we think are risky business and due for a fall.

We use a proprietary risk scoring system to pick stocks for the list. We developed the scoring system to help us select stocks for our various portfolios. It evaluates a stock's mid-term (one to six months) total return outlook.

Our scoring system considers a variety of fundamental, sentiment, and technical factors that we've found useful for evaluating dividend stock candidates. As you might imagine, the Death List stocks are the highest scoring, in terms of risk. It identifies stocks that are likely to cut their dividends and/or suffer share price drops, within the next six months.

Also, to keep the list down to reasonable size, we are only listing stocks trading for at least $5 per share, and paying at least a 3% yield.

Keep in mind that in the stock market, nothing works all of the time. So, while we think that these stocks are riskier than most, not all will drop in price.

The table shows our calculated Risk Score for each stock. We consider scores above 2 as risky, and the higher the score, the higher the risk.

Risk formula ver. 2  (3/2/10)

Data: 3/2/10 Recent
Price
Forecast
Dividend
Yield
Risk
Score

SRCE

1st Source Corporation

15.20

4.0

10

CBKN

Capital Bank Corporation

3.04

10.5

28

LSE

CapLease

4.40

5.5

8

CZWI

Citizens Community Bancorp 

3.93

5.1

23

CSBC

Citizens South Banking

5.12

3.1

23

BTC

Community Bankers Trust 

3.09

5.2

3

FMNB

Farmers National BancCorp

4.35

5.5

31

FCLF

First Clover Leaf Financial

6.90

3.5

16

FUNC

First United

5.92

6.8

14

HARL

Harleysville Savings Financial 

13.65

5.6

55

HWBK

Hawthorn Bancshares

11.98

3.7

9

KFED

K-Fed Bancorp

8.60

5.1

12

KCLI

Kansas City Life Insurance Company

27.78

3.9

17

KFFB

Kentucky First Federal Bancorp

12.23

3.3

44

NC

NACCO Industries

49.59

4.2

8

NL

NL Industries

8.15

6.1

410

NRF

Northstar Realty Finance 

4.13

9.7

107

NWN

Northwest Natural Gas

45.85

3.6

5

NLP

NTS Realty Holdings LP

5.30

3.8

14

OKFC

OAK Financial Corporation 

25.50

3.5

34

OSBK

Osage Bancshares.

8.50

4.0

37

OTT

Otelco 

16.38

10.3

33

PNM

PNM Resources

12.46

4.0

19

PNBC

Princeton National Bancorp

9.74

5.8

18

GIW

Wilber Corporation

6.72

3.6

15

 

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